ANTI-SMOKING campaigners have far from finished their battle with the tobacco industry, with some pushing for a ''licence to smoke'' and many predicting that cigarettes could be outlawed within a decade.
With the federal government's plans to introduce plain packaging for cigarettes expected to be challenged in the High Court, health experts are advocating even tougher restrictions, saying that public support is growing to ban tobacco.
Professor Simon Chapman, an anti-smoking campaigner from the University of Sydney, says a smoking ban could be a reality within 10 to 15 years, and believes a licensing scheme would pave the way.
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''The government should consider issuing smokers with a licence to smoke, which would involve them passing a test, not dissimilar to a driving test,'' Professor Chapman said.
''They would get a swipe card with their photo on it and - just like the pre-commitment gambling card - they could say how much they wanted to smoke a day. If it was 10 cigarettes a day you'd get a category one licence, 20 cigarettes would be a category two and there would be a higher cost to the card if you wanted to smoke more. The most anyone could buy would be 60 a day.''
Mike Daube, president of the Australian Council on Smoking and Health and deputy chairman of the federal government's National Preventative Health Taskforce, backed the scheme but said the onus should also be on the tobacco industry to clean up its act. ''You could give them 10 years in which to produce a product that is acceptable by any health standards and if they can't do that then their product will be treated like any other product and may no longer be sold,'' Professor Daube said.
''The way smoking trends are going, it's not unrealistic to think that we should see an end to [the] commercial sale of cigarettes within 10 to 15 years.''
About 17 per cent of Australians smoke, and a ban would cost the government about $6 billion a year in lost revenue. This would be offset by health savings, as the annual smoking-related medical burden tops $31 billion.
The licensing push has angered smokers' groups and civil libertarians, who say consumers should not be victimised for using a legal product, and such extreme measures could fuel the black market in illegal tobacco.
But worldwide, there are growing anti-tobacco moves, from banning tobacco advertising to phasing out smoking entirely. A New Zealand parliamentary committee has recommended a total ban by 2025.
In Singapore, the country's top lung cancer surgeons and specialists have proposed making it illegal for anyone born after 2000 to buy tobacco products. With a study showing 70 per cent of Singaporeans support the move, the Ministry of Health is considering it.
And in Finland, the government has declared the country will be smoke-free by 2040, introducing tough laws to reach the goal, including jail terms for giving children cigarettes and a ban on vending machines.
Paul Duggan, 45, has started the Australian Smokers Rights Party on Facebook and hopes to get enough support to turn it into a political party. ''I had a sneaking feeling that non-smokers were going to get more and more aggressive in the next five, 10, 15 years and I felt that the only way to combat it, because of all the hysteria, would be to get one or two people in the federal Senate fighting for smokers,'' he said.
The vice-president of Liberty Victoria, Anne O'Rourke, rejected a licensing scheme. ''Over-policing people's behaviour, particularly when the product is legal, is likely to be viewed by many as the state over-reaching
so it's unlikely to work.''
Louise Warburton, spokeswoman for British American Tobacco, said forcing smokers to obtain a licence could lead to an increase in the illegal tobacco trade as smokers sought to bypass bans.
The tobacco industry is spending an about $20 million fighting the government's proposed plain packaging laws, and is set to face further battles as public health group Action on Smoking and Health told The Sunday Age of plans to push for further tax increases and the removal of additives that make cigarettes more palatable.
Smokers are increasingly running out of places to enjoy their habit. Last month, owners of a Sydney apartment block introduced a bylaw making the entire complex smoke-free.
Quit Victoria executive director Fiona Sharkie said a smoker's licence had merit but the group first wants a ban on smoking in al fresco dining areas and to limit cigarette sales to a small number of licensed outlets. She said if the number of smokers declined to about 5 per cent of the population then a ban should be considered.
